Draw Preview: Sabalenka, Rybakina battle for WTA No. 1 in Cincy

By Grant Thompson

The WTA No. 1 ranking is up for grabs at the Cincinnati Open, with 2024 champion Aryna Sabalenka entering the tournament with a narrow lead over second seed Elena Rybakina.

The exact No. 1 scenarios will depend on Rybakina’s finish in Toronto. Should she win the trophy in Canada, Rybakina would trail Sabalenka by a razor-thin four PIF WTA Ranking points.

There is no shortage of storylines in Cincinnati, where 11 different players have been crowned champion in the past 11 years.

Home hopes Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are seeded third and fourth, respectively, while 19-year-old reigning Roland Garros champion Mirra Andreeva rounds out the Top 5 seeds.

Top quarter

Sabalenka returns to U.S. soil for the first time since completing the ‘Sunshine Double’ (winning Indian Wells AND Miami) in March. Following her fourth-round exit in Toronto, the 28-year-old superstar will be eager to find her best level again on American hard courts. Sabalenka is seeded to meet Elina Svitolina in the quarter-finals. Svitolina will compete in the Toronto semis on Wednesday.

The 16th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, 2019 champion Madison Keys, two-time major titlist Barbora Krejcikova and Leylah Fernandez are also among a star-studded top quarter.

Second quarter

Flashback to 2023 and Gauff became the youngest women’s champion in tournament history. The American would love nothing more than to win her first title of the season at this very event where she has enjoyed previous success. Looming in the fourth round is a potential clash with 18-year-old American and 13th seed Iva Jovic.

Also in that quarter is fifth-seeded Andreeva, the teenager who is making her second appearance at the Lindner Family Tennis Center and first since winning her maiden major title in Paris. Marta Kostyuk arrives in Cincinnati at a career-high No. 11. Sloane Stephens, the 2017 US Open champion, also features in that section.

Third quarter

Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova headlines the bottom half of the draw. The sixth seed will begin against the winner of a first-round match between two Katies — Katie Boulter and Katie Volynets. Boulter married ATP star Alex de Minaur last month.

One of the stories of the tournament will be Filipino sensation Alexandra Eala making her Cincinnati debut. The 21-year-old has captivated fans across the globe, most notably claiming her first WTA title in Washington, D.C, while drawing large crowds wherever she competes. Despite never playing in Mason before, Eala is seeded 17th on debut. Last year’s Wimbledon and US Open finalist Amanda Anisimova is seeded to face Eala in the third round.

American No. 1 Pegula leads the 19 women representing the stars and stripes in the main draw (not including potential qualifiers). A finalist in 2024, the third seed will aim to go one step further and lift the Rookwood Cup. Pegula could clash against 25th seed Emma Navarro in the third round.

Bottom quarter

Australian Open titlist Rybakina anchors the bottom half of the draw, which features defending champion Iga Swiatek in her quarter. Should the trend of no repeat champions continue, Rybakina would be among the favorites to extend that streak.

Swiatek could open against tennis icon Venus Williams, who is making her 12th Cincinnati appearance. The wild card will first have to get past a qualifier.

Also in the bottom quarter are 12th seed Belinda Bencic, 14th seed Diana Shnaider, 19th seed Maja Chwalinska, 26th seed Jelena Ostapenko and 29th seed Maria Sakkari.