ATP FINALS PREVIEW: EIGHT MEN (ALMOST) IN

By Richard Osborn

The race to Turin is coming to a close and the field is (almost) set for the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, to be played at Turin’s Inalpi Arena, Nov. 9-16. Now we’ll see who has what it takes to walk away with the year-end trophy. Will it be one of four former Cincinnati open champions in the draw? CincinnatiOpen.com breaks down the elite eight-man round-robin draw:

JIMMY CONNORS GROUP

CARLOS ALCARAZ (ESP)
2025 TITLES: 8 | 2025 RECORD: 67-8

Unless you’ve been residing under a rock, a rather large one at that, you know that Carlos Alcaraz is having one hell of a year on the tennis court. The winner of a tour-leading eight titles, including Roland Garros, the Cincinnati Open and the US Open (all of which came at the expense of his chief rival, Jannik Sinner), the 22-year-old Spaniard has really come into his own in 2025, the second-youngest man to win six Grand Slams in the Open Era behind only Hall of Famer Bjorn Borg. The No. 1 ranking has seesawed between Alcaraz and Sinner this year, with the Italian Sinner most recently reclaiming the top spot with a trophy run at the Rolex Paris Masters. There’s been no ‘Samson Syndrome’ for the buzzcut/silver-haired all-courter Alcaraz, who reeled off titles in Cincinnati, Flushing Meadows and Tokyo, and since April has dropped just four singles matches. “It’s been my best season so far without a doubt,” he said. “That shows how hard I’ve worked just to be able to experience these moments and accomplish my goals. I didn’t start the year that good, struggling emotionally, so how I came back from that, I’m just really proud of myself, and of all the people around me who have helped me to be in this position.”

NOVAK DJOKOVIC (SRB)
2025 TITLES: 1 | 2025 RECORD: 38-11

It should come as no surprise that, even at 38, Novak Djokovic should qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals, an event he has won a record seven times, including four straight between 2012 and 2015. The Serb, who has played somewhat sparingly in 2025, has been non-committal about his plans, only saying that he intends to do it his way. The three-time Cincinnati Open winner has certainly earned the right to do so. “It’s not about prioritizing the heavy schedule as I used to,” said Djokovic, whose lone title on the year, the 100th of his storied career, came in May on clay in Geneva. “I’m not chasing the rankings or building up my points or defending, etc. I just don’t think about it anymore. For me, it’s really about where I find motivation and joy? Where will I be inspired to play the best tennis? The Slams are obviously the four main tournaments where I always feel the most motivation. Then other tournaments here and there. I don’t actually have any schedule other than Slams, to be honest.” With a run to the final four at the US Open, Djokovic became the oldest player in the Open Era to reach the semis of all four majors in a single season.   

TAYLOR FRITZ (USA)
2025 TITLES: 2 | 2025 RECORD: 52-21

A return trip to the US Open final wasn’t in the cards for Taylor Fritz in 2025, but the Southern Californian has enjoyed an otherwise standout year on the ATP Tour, one that includes grass-court titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne. But the 28-year-old’s best stretch came at the Laver Cup in San Francisco, where he led Andre Agassi’s underdog Team World to its third title in four years with consecutive victories over No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 3 Alexander Zverev of Team Europe. Fritz is looking to take the next step in Turin after last year becoming the first American to reach the championship match since James Blake in 2006 (l. to Jannik Sinner, 6-4, 6-4). He’s more equipped than ever to do so. “Taylor’s done a great job over the years of getting more physical, putting more physicality into his game,” Fritz’s coach, Michael Russell, told me in Flushing Meadows. “His endurance, his explosiveness, is much better than it used to be. He’s seeing that result in matches. He’s able to win more five-set matches. He’s able to bounce back quicker. His recovery is better. And, as far as game style, he needs to continue to work on transitioning, moving forward, keeping that belief that he can attack second serves, providing that all-around power to his game with the explosiveness and the movement.”

ALEX DE MINAUR (AUS)
2025 TITLES: 1 | 2025 RECORD: 55-21

So tight was the Race to Turin that when he finally clinched a spot amongst the elite-eight last month, Alex de Minaur wasn’t convinced it was real. “Is that actually confirmed?” he asked after his 6-2, 6-2 dismissal of Karen Khachanov in Round 3 of the Rolex Paris Masters. “Jeez, that feels amazing. There’s been a lot of stress going on the last couple of weeks. I did my best to not keep an eye on the race, but it was too hard. It’s the first I’ve heard, and I’m extremely proud. I can finally relax for a bit.” The Aussie’s second appearance at the ATP Finals seems a fitting way to end a year that has seen the 26-year-old Sydneysider reach the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and US Open, save three championship points to earn his 10th career title in Washington, go a perfect three-for-three between singles and doubles at the Laver Cup in San Francisco, and match his career-high of No. 6 in the PIF ATP Rankings.

BJORN BORG GROUP

JANNIK SINNER (ITA)
2025 TITLES: 5 | 2025 RECORD: 53-6
For a guy who missed three months of the season due to a WADA-mandated ban, Jannik Sinner is putting up some serious numbers. The Italian appeared in all four major singles finals, walking away with the trophy at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, with additional titles at the 500/1000 level in Beijing, Vienna and Paris, where he reassumed his No. 1 throne. As his best-in-show rivalry with Carlos Alcaraz continues to ramp up, the 2024 Cincinnati Open champion remains open to tweaking his considerable arsenal. Sinner, 24, says he’s “trying to be a bit more unpredictable as a player,” and will continue to push for more ways to outfox his opponents on the court. “I’m not the only one who is changing,” said Sinner. “If you ask every player, every player is changing stuff and trying to get better. It’s not crazy steps, I’m just trying to adjust a couple of things, trying to get better as a player. I’m just looking forward to having as many matches as possible in every tournament. This gives me a chance to try as many things as possible.” Playing once again on home turf, Sinner will be an odds-on favorite to defend his ATP Finals crown.

ALEXANDER ZVEREV (GER)
2025 TITLES: 1 | 2025 RECORD: 54-23

Though he owns but a single title on the year (he captured his co-record third Munich crown in April), the ultra-consistent Alexander Zverev continues to be a week-in/week-out force on the ATP Tour. The 6-foot-6 German is 19-9 at the ATP Masters 1000 level this season, highlighted by semifinal runs in Toronto, Cincinnati and Paris. He is 19-2 versus players ranked outside the Top 30 since Roland Garros, with both losses coming against Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech. This will be his eighth appearance at the year-end championships, having won it all in both 2018 and 2021. In January, Zverev, the 2021 Cincinnati Open champion, reached the third major singles final of his career at the Australian Open. Now, 28, there’s some immediacy to his career if he intends to grab one of the sport’s four biggest trophies. “I think I’m looking for the last step, right?” said Zverev, who admittedly weathered some mid-season doldrums. “I’m looking to lift one of those above my head once. That’s what I’m looking for. I know that this season has been difficult for me at times. I made the final of the Australian Open and then I had a stretch where I wasn’t playing my best, not really great mentally, very frustrated with myself. I was not happy on the tennis court. Now I feel like it’s going in the right direction again.”

BEN SHELTON (USA)
2025 TITLES: 1 | 2025 RECORD: 40-21

Ben Shelton is set to make his Nitto ATP Finals debut fueled by a breakout campaign that has seen him reach his second major semifinal at the Australian Open, secure his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title in Toronto, and crack the Top 10 in the PIF ATP Rankings. Before a shoulder setback knocked him out of the running, Shelton was among the favorites at the US Open, playing the best tennis of his meteoric career. His health now restored, the 23-year-old lefthander will look to close out his ’25 campaign in winning fashion. His qualification, clinched with a quarterfinal push at the Rolex Paris Masters, means that two Americans will be vying for the Drewett Trophy for the first time in nearly two decades. Shelton appears to be regaining his summer form at just the right time. “I’m close,” he said. “The way that I’ve competed and dealt with adversity is one of the most important parts of a comeback, being able to handle the negatives when things don’t go your way out on the court. That’s what I’ve seen slowly improve since I’ve come back.”

TBD, LORENZO MUSETTI (ITA) OR FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME (CAN)

Lorenzo Musetti very much has his fate in own hands, the Athens ATP 250 title his only admittance into the year-end Nitto ATP Finals. The 23-year-old Musetti held his nerve and then some on Friday by saving a match point against American Sebastian Korda in the semis, winning 6-0, 5-7, 7-5. His back still against the wall, he’ll need to defeat draw headliner Novak Djokovic, a player against whom he’s 1-8, in Saturday’s trophy match to clinch the eighth and final spot in the year-end tour championship. For now, it’s an uneasy waiting game for Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime, who after a run to the trophy match at the Rolex Paris Masters (l. to Jannik Sinner, 6-4, 7-6(4)) is in the driver’s seat and will make the trip should Musetti falter. A men’s doubles finalist earlier this year at the Cincinnati Open with fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego (l. to Rajeev Ram/Nikola Mektic, 4-6, 6-3, 10-5), Musetti is oh-so-close to a dream ATP Finals debut in his home country.